Of late, it's become fashionable among AI CTOs to proclaim the death of the junior developer. (Some are suggesting that college graduates should take up plumbing or farming.) I find this entire line of thought to be ridiculous, silly, and almost entirely bereft of actual logical thinking.
To put this emerging myth to bed, I can follow one of several different argument paths:
- Argumenter analysis
- Historical analysis
- Logical analysis
Let's take these in order, shall we?
Analyzing the argumenter (speaker)
In many circles, it's common to want to examine the argument absent the person presenting it. "This laptop is the best laptop ever manufactured" can take on very different meanings when uttered by the manufacturer of said laptop as opposed to a neutral third party who has expertise in evaluating said genre of hardware. "Let the argument stand alone" is the rallying cry of these "argument in a vacuum" proponents.
Unfortunately, lots of arguments are not entirely objective in nature. "This is the best" is an opinionated statement that might, at best, be supported by evidence, but only if you (a) agree with the weight by which the evidence is evaluated, and (b) accept as legitimate the manner in whichthe evidence was gathered. Only if we all agree on (a) and (b) can we even begin to consider agreeing on the conclusion drawn.
On top of that, the entire premise rests on the idea that the invidual speaking the opinion/conclusion is doing so in entirely good faith. And that, dear reader, is where many of our "junior developers are obsolete" pronunciations go horribly, horribly wrong, because so many of those who make that statement are in positions wherein they benefit directly or indirectly from the prophecy becoming a self-fulfilling one.
Consider: If the collective society that LinkedIN seeks to persuade is, in fact, persuaded, then all the currently-enrolled and future enrollees at colleges and universities all over the world will choose degrees in something (anything!) other than Computer Science. Zero graduates. Zero additional inputs into the system. Current junior developers may even pick up their laptops and go take up plumbing. Which leaves us the current crop of senior developers who have maybe--at most--two more decades of work experience left to them, after which, zero developers left to create all that software that will--by definition--still be in demand.
So where, dear reader, do we think the future CEOs and program managers are going to turn to get the new software development they will be demanding? Surely these junior-developer-doomsayers aren't expecting that we'll have to turn to coding agents (and whatever price they're charging for tokens consumed as part of the act of generating that software!) instead, thus making a ton of profits for the owners of those coding agents. Would they--could they--really be that selfish?
(This, of course, presumes that the coding agents are sufficiently good enough such that developers don't need to touch code anymore, and I hold the opposite to be axiomatic.)
Historical analysis
Another approach is to examine parallels in our history, recent or ancient, that hold similar kinds of pronunciations and examine the results. One parallel that frequently appears in the discussion of LLM-based AIs and coding agents is that of the pocket calculator: In the 1970s, when digitial manufacture had reached a point of miniturization enough such that average consumers (e.g., schoolchildren) could have a pocket-sized computer sufficient to carry out cardinal mathematical operations, the educational community went into something of a frenzy, debating how much the calculator was dooming our current generation of schoolchildren to ignorance and incompetence. Larry Cuban has an interesting analysis of the debate that took shape in the 1970s, 80's and even up through the turn of the millenium. In fact, the debate continued all the way up until the present day, though "computers" later came to replace "calculators", mostly because the technology advanced so far as to give students computers in their pocket, by way of "graphing calculators" in the late 80s/early 90s and then later mobile devices (phones, tablets) in the 10s and 20s.
I won't try to challenge or confirm the debates of the time--I was in grade school during the 70s, then middle school and high school in the 80s, so I was one of those schoolchildren everybody was debating about. (My mother, a career educator and administrator up until she married my father and transitioned to "happy homemaker", was often a part of these debates, fiercely so.) Instead, I'll talk about what things looked like from the ground as they were going on.
Most of my teachers were pretty much of the same mind: Calculators definitely do the work faster than you can. However, just knowing how to punch numbers into the calculator only takes you so far--you still need to know which operations you punch in and what numbers go where. The device can do long division for you, but if you're not familiar with how it works, you're going to get certain parts of it wrong, and oh, for whatever it's worth, fractions are still something outside the realm of your average pocket calculators, so if you try to add 1/3 and 2/3, you're going to get 0.99999999999999....
In the modern day, 2026, we find that certain operations are actually faster to calculate in your head, but some of the fears of the calculators-will-rot-our-brains crowd certainly seem to have come true: a fifth of adults apparently have no idea how to do basic math with fractions, or even long division, and that was a study from 10 years ago. But if there's a comforting fact to that study, it's that they've also forgotten basic punctuation skills and simple science facts. (Quick, what are all the planets in our solar system? If you have three other people around you, one of you can't.)
The larger point here, as it relates to LLMs and coding agents? The people who need to do maths on a daily basis--accountants, for example--make heavy use of those very same tools that were feared and loathed fifty years ago, but they don't use them as replacements, but as supplements, to the job at hand. No accountant with even a remote shred of sense is going to go through and do the double-entry bookkeeping by hand anymore, because spreadsheets and accounting software can make all of that just a click away. However, they still go through the basics of how accounting works, because understanding the principles that underlie the software or the tool are actually the key to understanding accounting.
You don't get to an understanding of those principles without doing a bunch of it by hand. Once you understand what the tool is doing and (to some degree) how the tool works, you're allowed to use the tool. There's zero reason why this should be any different for coding agents than it was for calculators.
Logical analysis
And then, of course, there's the logical analysis which presents the logical conclusion of the argument--that GenZ is literally the last generation of programmers produced by the human race, and over time the last of the programmers will die out and all code will only ever be replaced or fixed by other code going forward--which depends on precisely one thing: That the code generated by these coding agents is (a) good code (for whatever definition we care to use for the word "good" here), (b) maintainable code (or at least can be re-generated from scratch on demand), and/or (c) code that would never need to be changed, fixed, or replaced.
I'm pretty sure (c) doesn't count. Even if the code is perfect at the time it was generated, it's not going to magically adjust to the changing demands of the market, humanity, or whimsy, much less the combination thereof.
As far as (a) and (b) go, however, we know that LLM-powered coding agents are not perfect, or at least I've yet to find someone who wants to stand up in a public place and lay out the argument that they are, anyway. We're getting different "takes" on how to best use coding agents, but the "zero-shot" "vibe coding" crowd definitely seems to be running out of steam (based entirely on the unscientific data that LinkedIN's been passing into my feed over the last few months), and we're all of us very clearly aware that LLM-generated code is not deterministic . This feeds us back into the basic premise I established earlier (developers will still touch code), which then means that we need people who will be able to read the code and understand it. That means there will always be a demand for programmers to examine and maintain that code, which then (by the basic principles of supply-and-demand market economics) means that there will be a supply of people who provide that skill.
(As an aside, we can easily spend quite a lot of time going back and forth on what their equilibrium price will or should be, and that takes us into an economic analysis of the market and what sort of supply-side and demand-side shocks to their respective curves on the supply-demand graph look like, which is really outside of what I want to do with this essay. So long as supply is greater than zero and demand is greater than zero, there's a graph, and therefore there's some kind of industry here that we can talk about. Which, by definition, therefore, means that there has to be a pipeline of junior developers who fill in the lost ranks from the senior developers who retired or died or worse.)
The Junior Developer Development Pipeline
If you're a medium-to-large company that's trying to think about all of this, here's my suggestion, which is actually the same suggestion I've made to several companies at which I've either been employed or consulted:
Don't let market conditions define the supply constraints around your development.
Take aggressive action to control your supply-chain inputs (in this case, the people who provide the necessary skills your IT department needs) by hiring juniors to take part in an internal educational journey towards employment at your firm. In other words, deliberately create and shape your apprenticeship program. Hire people with either college degrees or even just straight high school diplomas, and teach them what you need them to know. Grow them into the kind of employees you want. Teach them fundamentals, ground them in the principles that guide your thinking and culture, and give them the tools and skills they need to do the job you want them to do and do it well.
Because if your team follows a basic "skill pyramid" (1 senior, 2 mid-level, 3 juniors on any given team), you're constantly training up some new folks, and assuming the senior and mid-levels follow typical career progression and leave after a few years in the role, you'll have a constant supply of likely replacements/promotions for the team. Grow through the draft, and you won't have to worry about having to hire in expensive free agents except in very specific scenarios.